美国联准会(Fed)主席鲍尔22日赴国会作证时表示,继本月一口气升息3码(0.75个百分点)后,Fed仍将持续提高利率打通膨,但决策官员必须“灵活”应变,因为美国经济仍受多股逆风夹击。
鲍尔向参议院银行委员会发表每半年一度的经济证词,他在预先备妥的讲稿中说:“我们预期,当前升息幅度是适宜的。过去一年来,通膨显然高得出乎意外,未来仍可能出现更多的意外发展。因此,面对未来出炉的数据和不断演变的展望,我们必须灵活应变。”
鲍尔的讲稿大致重申上周在会后记者会上的说法。当天,负责Fed利率决策的联邦公开市场操作委员会(FOMC)一口气提高基准利率0.75个百分点,是1994年来最大升息幅度,联邦资金利率目标区间提高到
1.5%-1.75%。鲍尔并在记者会上表明,7月底下次会议时可能再次升息3码或 2码。
22日国会证词讲稿未提及进一步升息的幅度。但Fed理事沃勒(Christopher
Waller)18日表示,如果经济数据果如预期,他支持7月进一步升息3码。
鲍尔22日说:“我们明白通膨造成的痛苦,我们强烈承诺将把通膨压下来,也正迅速采取行动这么做。”
美国5月消费者物价指数(CPI)年增率冲上8.6%,是40年来最高。生活费升高已触怒美国民众,也伤害总统拜登所属的民主党11月期中选举选情。Fed官员已坦承太慢收紧政策,如今正设法藉快马加鞭升息亡羊补牢。经济学家担心,Fed扩大升息力道,未来两年经济衰退几率随之升高。
前纽约联邦准备银行总裁杜雷也表示,未来12至18个月内, 美国衰退“无可避免”。Fed经济学家季里(Michael
Kiley)则发布报告,根据通膨率、失业率、公司债殖利率资料推算,未来四季失业率大增的几率高于50%。
鲍尔则说:“美国经济现在很强,能挺得住货币政策收紧。”
近日来油价回跌,反映市场对全球成长的顾虑,可能有助于缓和美国汽油上涨压力。同时,美国聘雇情况仍强,消费支出指标也显示需求屹立不摇,尽管实质可支配所得已受通膨劲扬侵蚀。
鲍尔在22日的证词中形容美国劳动市场“极为紧绷”,“近几个月来所见的金融情势收紧,应会持续缓和成长,并协助让需求与供应更趋于平衡。”
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